Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. 'The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,' Konik says. In short: Keep as much money as possible from free bets. Matched betting is the. A good way to determine if you have managed to achieve a value bet is to look at the closing prices in the Betfair Match Odds market. How to win and make money in the Football Transfer Betting. But here’s the thing: becoming more objective towards NFL betting online is literally the easiest way to make smarter bets. It doesn’t require a detailed strategy on mathematical analysis, it just requires common sense. Cheering on your favorite team (at least) 16 times per year is a lot of fun, but losing money in the process is not.
When most people think about betting sides in football their thought process starts and ends with the point spread. That’s unquestionably the most common and popular way to bet on the winner of a football team, but it’s not the only way. The moneyline is thought by many people to be just the way to bet on baseball, hockey, and tennis, but there is a moneyline set for every NFL game and most college games. I would never suggest that the moneyline should be bet instead of the point spread in football. The moneyline is definitely something that even casual football bettors understand, though, so that they can use it if it makes sense and gives them a better chance for profit. Simply, the moneyline is a very powerful tool to have in your football betting toolbox.
The biggest reason why people shy away from the moneyline is probably that they don’t understand them. They are really quite simple once you figure them out, though. The biggest thing to remember, and expert sports handicappers know this, is that unlike the point spread all you have to do is figure out which team is going to win. It doesn’t matter how much they win by – if you bet on a team on the moneyline and they win then so do you. In order to balance out the action – to get about as much money bet on the underdogs as the favorites – sports books charge different prices for the favorites and underdogs. The easiest was to understand this is with an example. If the Patriots were slight favorites over the Jets in a game then the moneyline odds might have the Patriots at -130 and the Jets at +120. That means that you would have to bet $130 to make a profit of $100 on the Patriots. You could obviously bet any amount you wanted on them, and the payoff would be calculated at the same proportion. Because the Jets are the underdog and therefore at least theoretically less likely to win you are rewarded more for betting on them – the +120 means that you would make a profit of $120 for every $100 bet. Because you have to bet considerably more to make a $100 profit at -350 than you do at -130 the team at -350 would be a significantly bigger favorite. On the other side, a team at +350 would be a much bigger underdog than a team at +120.
Here are five situations where smart sports bettors might consider using a moneyline bet instead of a point spread bet in football:
When betting on a slight underdog – Let’s say that you are betting on an underdog that is getting less than a field goal on the point spread. It’s certainly possible that the extra point or two you have in your favor are going to be relevant in the final score, but chances are good that you are betting on a slight underdog in a case like this not because you think that they are only going to lose by one point, but because you think that they have a good chance of winning the game outright. If you didn’t think that then your bet wouldn’t make much sense. In a case like that the moneyline make more sense than the point spread. You are going to lose on the moneyline if the team does win by one or two points (if the point spread is 2.5), so there is more risk involved. In exchange for taking on that slight extra risk, though, you have a chance at a nicer payoff. The point spread would generally be priced at -110, but the moneyline for the same team would be somewhere in the neighborhood of +120 (there is no direct relationship between point spreads and moneylines, so the best you can do is estimate). That’s a significant difference in potential payoff, and would certainly be attractive if you thought there was a good chance that the underdog was going to win outright.
When betting on a heavy underdog – If you have bet football for a while then you know that sometimes there are situations where you feel confident that a heavy underdog is not only going to cover a big spread, but has a very good chance of winning the game outright. Let’s say a NFL team is a 10.5 point underdog in a game, but you like their chances. If you bet them against the spread and they win outright then you get paid off at -110, so your $100 bet makes a profit of about $91. The moneyline on a 10.5 point underdog would be about +450, so that same $100 bet would generate a profit of about $450. You don’t have to be right very often to generate a better long term profit on the moneyline than against the spread. The trick, of course, is that the bet only makes sense if you think there is a good chance of an upset win. If not then you are just gambling, and smart bettors don’t gamble.
When you are parlaying – If you parlay three teams against the spread then you are paid off at fixed odds if you are right. Those odds are set by the sports books and are always significantly lower than the actual risk involved. For example, when you are betting a three team parlay there are eight possible outcomes – WWW, LLL, WLL, LWL, LLW, WWL, WLW, and LWW. Only one of those outcomes – WWW – would cause you to win your parlay bet. That means, then, that on the long term you would need odds of 7/1 to just break even, and better than that to make a profit. Most sports books pay off on three teams parlays at 6/1, or at best 6.5/1, though. That means that even if you can pick winners at the expected rate – harder than it seems – you are going to lose money over the long term. That’s called a negative expectation, and smart bettors hate negative expectations. Moneyline parlays don’t pay off at a fixed rate. Instead, the potential payout is essentially calculated by multiplying the odds of the games you are betting on together. If you were parlaying three games at +110 then the payoff would be exactly the same as if you bet on the first game, took all of your winnings and bet that on the second football game, and took all of the winnings from the that game and let it all ride on the third game. In other words, moneyline parlays payoff at true odds, and that’s always more attractive than negative expectations. That doesn’t necessarily mean that moneyline parlays are a good idea, but they aren’t as bad of an idea as point spread parlays usually are.
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The most popular sport in the world is not as difficult to predict as many people think. Football(Soccer) is a game full of statistics; all the information is available on endless websites. Analyzing the game is easy, with the right steps and information; anyone can accurately predict the outcome of a football match. Predictions can be used to place bets and make money. You do not need to be a great connoisseur of football, but you need experience in football leagues, names of important players, important tournaments, etc. Knowledge is always the key to getting a good prediction. First of all, we shall discuss some sites that predict football matches correctly.
Contents
- 4 How can you predict a football match?
Goal Profits Betfair Football Trading & Team Statistics Software
Goal Profits is one of the best football tipsters which provides the best football tips since 2014. It provides 16 different strategies & complete training on football trading including their football prediction software. They emphasize on football trading rather than gambling. After subscribing to Goal Profits you shall find your football betting style totally transformed into a new level altogether. We highly recommend this tipster service to be part of your football trading journey.
Get Winning Tips from “FootyBetter” Football Betting System
Today we want to let you in on a secret about a tipping service that has been providing profitable winners ever since its inception.
“FootyBetter” is gaining a big reputation in betting circles and it is rapidly gaining a loyal following.
The reason for this is that they don’t only bring in the small wins, but they have also been hitting a few big ones as well!
So along with all of their smaller regular wins, these game-changers have also hit the banks of their current subscribers in recent weeks.
They offer three professional tipping service i.e. “FootyBetter Extra”, “Football Accumulators” & “Over goals Teams List” in one package for a low price of £27 per month or £197 per year. Punters also have choice to pick a single service for £17 per month or £87 per year. “Football Accumulators” & “FootyBetter Extra” are the most preferred service chosen by the subscribers.
Football Prediction Using “Soccer Buddy” Tool
We found Soccer Buddy tool by Zcode System is one of the best football prediction tools which provides accurate predictions on almost all football league around the world.
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Soccer Buddy tool is using advanced scores prediction formula that takes into account eighty+ parameters, optimized on the historical data to perform ten thousand simulations of the game and predict the anticipated scores. The tool predicts the results of football games around the world. Using this tool you have to choose the event date and the football league. The goal of this tool is to predict not only the winner of the sport however also a potential score and also the spread, which may facilitate your improve and filter your results betting Moneylines, Spreads, and Totals! The color-coding shows confidence levels. It predicts the winners with high accuracy & you will gonna LOVE it!
How can you predict a football match?
It is very easy, the steps that we will detail below can be learned in a few minutes and with a day of practice, you can master the techniques.
Look for the best upcoming matches
Choose a football league based on the knowledge you have about it. Look for the best 5 matches for the week, probably the best matches will be among the first 5 teams of the positions on the leaderboard. The stats of each football team can be obtained on several websites dedicated to football. Among the best websites to look for statistics are Wettpoint.com, Soccerway.com, and Matchstat.com among others.
Choose the best team to bet
To find more detailed statistics of a football match, we do a search head to head between the two teams. The search is done placing the name of the two teams in the search engine as follows:
Team A vs. Team B H2H (h2h means head to head)
When performing this type of search, there will appear several websites of football statistics, some of those mentioned above. Among the most important statistics are matches won at home, the percentage of goals per match, percentage of goals against, faults per game, among others.
Do your homework properly
It is necessary to know how to interpret the statistics of each team. With the following scenario in this example we will have an idea:
– We chose Team A to play at home against Team B
– Team A has not lost any of the last 5 games at home.
– The percentage of goals for Team A at home is 1.7% against Team B
– In the last 10 games, Team A has won 6 and lost 4 to Team B.
– Team A is top of the league table with 26 points, while Team B is in the seventh position with 12 points
With the example scenario, it is shown how easy it is to analyze the statistics. Obviously, Team A has a huge advantage over Team B, with more wins and percentage goals per match.
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Choose the best football betting system
Beyond the personal research, it is always advisable to subscribe to a professional handicapper service which is especially predicting football outcomes. The Zcode System & Sports Cash System are among the best football prediction site in the world those provide soccer picks predictions. While the above two betting system provides picks on all other sports, are two premier betting system which provides best betting tips on football. By this way, you will reduce the risk of losing a bet & increase your profit substantially. Time to time we shall update you more on accurate soccer prediction sites on our website.
What if you could find out World Cup Winner before it actually happens?
I know many of you like my friend Mike, big football fans. Here is a great tool to help you with profits from sports betting and football predictions.
Imagine if you could Find out World Cup Winner before it actually happens?
here is one of the cool tools our team developed, it’s called playoff simulator and it works on all sports, not just football.
Playoff Simulator is using advanced prediction formula that takes into account 80+ parameters, optimized on the historical data to perform 10,000 simulations of the game and predict the anticipated playoff brackets and the series winners. The closer we are to playoff the more accurate it gets! Enjoy!
Do your own research
In the fourth step, the backups are searched for the selection. In this case, our team to choose was Team A, which according to our analysis has the best chances of winning. To find a backup we go to social networks, for example, Twitter and we look for tweets and news about Team A to observe how the favoritism of the team with fans is. Another way to look for backup is to check the latest news on sports websites (Daily Mail, The Sun, ESPN, etc).
Choose the best odds to bet
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In the last one, we should look for the odds for the football match. Among the bookmakers to use we must do a deep search of the best odds. Odds can play a very important role when making a bet if the odds for the match are not sufficiently lucrative, the best thing to do is discard the analysis and start again with another different team.
Take the help of sports betting tool
There is an amazing tool called Zcode line reversal tool which shall provide you the live betting indicator collecting data from all the bookies. By this way, you shall be aware of where high rollers (Sharp Bettors) putting their bets. If Sharp Bettors placing big bets on a particular team, then you should follow them to win a bet.
Within the fourth step is the choice of the type of bet, it should be noted that the analysis does not indicate that the type of bet must be Match Winner, on the contrary, the analyses help to choose other types of bets such as Over / Under, Handicaps, Corners bet, etc.
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Beyond knowing how to conduct a good analysis, bettors require something “spiritual” to detect good football matches. Each game has different betting possibilities, but everything remains in the interpretation of the punter who is doing the analysis when choosing the best options for the match.
Also, look at the post on “how to bet on football and always win“.
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